NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – U.S. consumer confidence declined to its lowest point since April 2014 in September, marking a continued three-month downturn in household optimism. According to The Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, with August’s figure revised downward to 88.6. Data collected from September 1 through September 23 reflected weakening in both current assessments and expectations over the next half-year.
The Present Situation Index dropped 7.9 points to 109.3, indicating less favorable views of business and labor conditions. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index decreased 5.9 points to 63.6, marking its third consecutive monthly decline. This index gauges consumer outlook on income, employment, and business prospects over the upcoming six months. Both measures contributed to pushing the overall confidence level further below earlier this year’s readings.
The survey conducted by The Conference Board revealed a noticeable shift in opinions regarding current economic conditions. About 18.5% of respondents rated the business climate as good, a slight decrease from 18.8% in August. Conversely, those perceiving conditions as poor rose from 17.3% to 20.4%. Views on the labor market also softened, with 23.6% citing plentiful jobs compared to 24.5%, while 21.9% found jobs hard to obtain, up from 20.3%.
Inflation expectations climb amid sustained high fuel prices
Consumers anticipated higher inflation in September. The average 12-month inflation outlook increased by 0.3 percentage points to 6.1%, with the median rising to 5.1%. Separate data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed consumer prices up 3.4% in August compared to the previous year. The BLS also reported gasoline prices grew by 3.9% during August. On September 29, AAA indicated a national average of approximately $4.46 per gallon for regular gasoline, consistent with ongoing high fuel costs.
Forecasts for spending demonstrated caution across several sectors. On a six-month moving average basis, plans to purchase cars and homes slightly declined in September. Spending intentions for services—including hotels, movies, air travel, and amusement parks—also fell. However, vacation plans remained robust, with 42.6% of consumers intending to travel within six months. This was an increase of 0.5 percentage points from August, primarily reflecting domestic travel intentions.
Outlook for jobs and income weakens
Expectations for business conditions, employment, and income prospects deteriorated. Only 15.9% of consumers believed conditions would improve, down from 17.0% in August, while those expecting conditions to worsen rose from 23.3% to 25.4%. Anticipated job availability also declined, with 14.0% expecting more jobs and 28.4% expecting fewer. Income outlooks softened, with 17.9% predicting gains and 15.4% expecting declines over the next six months.
Financial confidence across households also declined, with net views of current family finances turning negative for only the second time since the measure’s inception four years ago. Confidence trends fell across nearly all age and income groups on a six-month average basis. The online monthly survey, conducted by Toluna for The Conference Board, closed its September data collection on September 23. The next Consumer Confidence Index report is scheduled for release on October 27.