NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has entered its fifth year Monday, following four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has climbed roughly 119% since its bear-market low on October 12, 2022. That year, the index closed at 3,577.03, marking its lowest finish since November 2020. As of Friday, it closed at 7,811.54, up 14.1% in 2026 and approaching record levels, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
The current expansion ranks as the 11th bull market since the 1950s and the seventh to last at least four years. The 119% rise remains below the average advance of 184% observed across the bull markets analyzed. Historically, earlier cycles achieved much larger gains—such as the 2009-to-2020 bull market with a 401% increase and the 1987-to-2000 cycle with 582%. These periods remain among the most robust in historical comparison.
Historical data shows that many bull markets at this stage have produced positive returns. Of the previous 10 bull runs, six lasted longer than four years. The average fifth-year return was 12%, with a median gain of 15%. During fifth years, maximum drawdowns averaged around 14%. These figures depict past behavior and do not guarantee future results for the current cycle.
Earnings growth bolsters current market momentum
S&P 500 third-quarter earnings are tracking 29.6% above the same period last year, as of October 9, according to FactSet. This marks the third consecutive quarter with year-over-year earnings growth exceeding 25%. The growth rate was 29.2% at quarter’s end on September 30. Of 19 index companies reporting by October 9, 84% beat analysts’ average earnings estimates, with aggregate earnings surpassing expectations by 4.9%.
Expectations for the remainder of the year remain high. Analysts project a 27.6% increase in S&P 500 earnings for the fourth quarter and a 32.4% growth rate for full-year 2026. Semiconductor and hardware firms contribute around 40% of the upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates and roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates so far this year, according to Barclays research. Technology-related companies continue to be central to earnings revisions.
Interest rates and bond yields remain elevated in the backdrop
The rally persists amid rising U.S. interest rates and high government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, citing solid economic growth and persistent inflation. The September projections show median 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 to October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields remain near multi-year highs as the market enters its fifth year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9, with the 30-year at 5.60%. Despite this, the S&P 500 ended that session 0.6% higher at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%. The market’s fifth year is underway close to record levels, supported by strong earnings growth and borrowing costs still above earlier bull-market levels.
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